Use risk-weighted net present value that divides the NPV by the expected value.

2025-07-10T00:26:06Z

Didn't Ole Peters say expected value was bad?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk-adjusted_net_present_value

Process Model Issues

Use risk-weighted net present value that divides the NPV by the expected value.

Use the discounted cash flow method to get the appropriately discounted net present value of the work product.

What about the risk of benefit shortfall, or total failure to deliver?

You can use the Kelly fraction instead of expected value if you want.